The only holding in my portfolio that has me checking on it every day is NYX. PG and MO I really am not too concerned with. They are great dividend payers and their long-term prospects especially in this type of environment are great.
As for NYX though, I have a cost basis of $76.05. NYX is currently trading at $62.13. The holding is only 7% of my total portfolio value, but when you have a loss of 18.3%, it sure has me concerned.
Don’t get me wrong, I still believe the long-term prospects of NYX are bullish. Their integration of their acquisition of Euronext and now the news this morning that the FTC has given them Antitrust OK for buying the AMEX are great long-term deals for NYX. But the main question I wrestle with everyday is “Where is it going from here?”
Half of my position has a cost per share value of $80.70. The other half has a cost per share value of $71.40. Here are my options:
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Sell the entire position for a realized loss.
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Sell 1/2 of my position and bring my cost per share down to $71.40.
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Double down and bring my cost per share down to $69.44 while increasing my percentage of total portfolio value to 15.4%.
If NYX traded down to $60, I thoroughly believe it would find big support where it had big-time accumulation between May and September 2006. At $60 their ttm P/E would be only at 22.9. At a ttm 20 P/E, it would be trading at $52.20.
So where is this stock going to find value support? Do we really need a bull market for this stock to trade up? Limited derivative exposure seems to be the knock on this story. But with a 5 year sales growth of 24.9%, a PEG under 1, and the soon to happen acquisition of the AMEX (which would give them huge ETF exposure), NYX is starting to look juicy.
I’m not a fan of their debt on the balance sheet, but they do have a large amount of cash and management over there seems to be making great long-term deals. You can now see why I am on the fence with this one, can’t you?
